Friday, October 31, 2008

Are We At the Bottom in Housing?

Well experts are scratching their heads to answer this question. We've seen home prices drop some 27%-30% since the 4th quarter of 2006. But really if you look at the data the majority of the declines came from the west and east coasts, mostly California and Florida. Take these states out and you have a flat market. In some markets prices are actually increasing. So is there a bottom? How do you know?

I really believe if we can get the media to start telling good news, consumer confidence will come back and "the markets" state of mind will change. All the bad publicity housing has been getting has caused a shift in thinking keeping people on the sidelines. I can't stress this enough that NOW is the time to buy a home. The government is giving a tax credit for first time homebuyers and when they begin to jump back into the market, you'll see a domino effect upward.

In the midst of the RED HOT real estate boom home prices were skyrocketing and rates were low. Now you have the same low rates but home prices have come down so why not take advantage of the opportunity. Don't listen to the hype that makes news, work the numbers and realize that this is only a correction, a hefty one, but a correction that will not last too much longer.

The media wants you to believe that home financing options have vanished. This simply not true. FHA, which stands for Federal Housing Authority, was enacted in 1934 to help stimulate a flat housing market. FHA provides low down payment, low interest, affordable financing for not only first time homebuyers but repeat buyers alike. FHA is ran by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and operates fully on self-generated income that costs the taxpayers zero. The insurance premiums, called UFMIP or upfront mortgage insurance premium, is charged on every loan and is put into an account to which the program is funded.

FHA has mortgage insurance on a monthly basis as well, similar to PMI or private mortgage insurance issued by private companies such as Radian, PMI, MGIC, and RMIC. This mortgage insurance is at a much lower cost than conventional mortgage insurance and in some instances is half the cost.

The media doesn't talk about this program of course and its important that we get some stigmas out of the way. FHA in its old days was a little more strict on the property guidelines. They would require a very long form of an appraisal called a VC sheet. This sometimes made it difficult for the Realtors and buyers because certain guidelines required additional inspections and repairs not figured into the sales price that would delay closing or cost the seller more money than they anticipated. This was for the protection of the buyer so that they were not moving into a home that needed a lot of repairs and that would put a strain on the new homeowner. Realtors and builders grew to hate the program and tried to find other avenues of financing. Since 2006 FHA has loosened its guidelines to change with the market and has made it easier to close on a home using FHA financing.

With the explosion of 100% purchase programs FHA became obsolete. Do not be afraid of this program because this is an excellent way to get low cost, low down payment financing to purchase a home. The problems we are having came from the provisions in the Community Reinvestment Act in 1995, which made banks make more and more loans to people who really couldn't afford them. Very very lax underwriting guidelines fueled by greed on Wall Street with exotic mortgage-backed bonds and collateralized debt obligations that have crippled names like Merriyl Lynch and Bear Stearns.

We've seen some consolidation in the this industry and I believe we'll see more coming down the pike. So are we at a bottom? I honestly believe the worst is behind us and we'll see an upward trend in the coming quarters. Don't listen to the hype on the news, if you are in the market talk to a mortgage professional and work the numbers.

For information on FHA loans please visit my site, www.53.com/mlo/dustin-swigart.

Have a great weekend!!!

"We all have the seeds to personal growth within us, but very few ever realize the important role circumstances play in nurturing those seeds to trees of opportunity."

Dustin Swigart

Copyright © 2008 by Dustin Swigart

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Credit is Starting to Ease

As we all know we've been hammered everyday about the economic conditions we face. It's funny though how, when speaking about mortgages, the media fails to talk about government backed loans. They only talk about Fannie and Freddie but leave out Ginnie, which backs FHA securitized loans.
We still have financing available for first time homebuyers and marginal credit loans through financing with FHA, VA, and USDA rural housing loans. When talking with prospective buyers I keep hearing how "scared" people are to make a move. After I explain some of the conditions in the market and why the stock market is so volatile they settle down and understand what is happening with market dynamics.

The automobile industry used to be the main driver of the economy and signaled the dominance of manufacturing in our economy. Well now the main driver is housing. Yep that's right back in 2001 after the 9/11 attacks government was reluctant to impose regulation on the only part of the economy that appeared to be thriving, the red hot real estate market. Now we are facing the problems that all the credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligations, and other derivatives, that have caused problems for the banks and institutions that had them on their balance sheet.
We are in a flushing out phase and it will end, just not immediately. The Housing Recovery Act of 2008 made great strides to modernize FHA and come out with a tax credit for first time homebuyers in order to get them back into the market. Lets face it we need the first time homebuyers back in to purchase bloated inventory so we can start the domino effect again.

I want to explain a little bit about what is going on in the credit markets. I believe through education, you can ease your prospects minds with important information and convert more leads into sales.

Lets start with the credit markets. Credit markets are vital for individuals and businesses who need to access credit in order to purchase goods and services, make payrolls, expand business operations, make capital expenditures, school loans, and more.

The most important spread being watched right now is the LIBOR/OIS Spread. This is the spread between dollar LIBOR (london inter bank offered rate) and the Overnight index swap rates. This is a good indication of the willingness of banks to lend to each other. To give you a comparison before the credit crunch the LIBOR/OIS spread was 11bps (bps mean basis points which is 1/100th of a percent, example 11 basis points is .11% - 100bps is 1%.) The higher the spread the less likely banks will lend to each other. This week it closed at an a staggering 331bps but dropped from 341bps, which means we are seeing slight improvement.

Now what about all the selling? Well with the craziness in the market and Hedge Funds, investment vehicles for the wealthy, are deleveraging their positions and being forced to sell due to redemptions from their wealthy clients. Hedge funds are down about 19% ytd (estimate), some hedge funds after fees return 20%-26% annually. Hedge funds make their money in the stock market, credit markets, and derivative markets but in some cases borrow heavily to invest and hedge their bets. That's fine and dandy in an economic boom but in a slowdown like this they must sell and deleverage their positions causing downward pressure in the markets and then also selling on the down side, short selling, put options, etc, to keep from losing money from long, bullish positions, which causes more downward pressure. Not to mention mutual fund clients are selling their positions to meet growing redemptions from their clients as well. Thus creating the volatile environment we find ourselves in.

If you had some extra money laying around right now would be the best time to invest in real estate, and stocks pounded and are now undervalued.

The moral of the story, educate your clients in contrary to what is being splattered on the media, we are in election time and some news stations with political agendas are attempting to make this look like this is all the Bush Administrations fault and are attempting to make it sound so HORRID. Both parties failed to take action but many attempts were made but shot down by democrats in Congress. Right now is the best time to buy a home and with the Treasury recently being given 1.1Trillion dollars in buying power to purchase mortgage-backed securities (the main driver of mortgage rates) we should see some easing in the rate volatility here shortly as well.

If I can help with anything feel free to call or email me. Stay positive, do your homework on the market, this kind of thing happened in 1987 as well but how soon we forget.

God Bless!

Thursday, October 23, 2008

The Mastery Of Credit Scores

We all know how important credit as become. In this day in age where all that is used by lenders is credit score, an accompanying story and relationship has become a thing of the past. With the new instruments on Wall Street such as credit default swaps and other derivatives make it nearly a necessity to have a high credit score in order to even look at you as a candidate for financing.

The most frustrating part about this is that it takes years to build credit and just minutes to destroy it. Then after something happens it can take years to rebuild it. In many instances there are situations where credit inaccuracies, which are highly common, can prevent you from getting the financing you need whether it be for a business or personal usage. There have been laws put in place to help consumers like the FACT act and the FCRA act but without detailed knowledge of these acts, which most consumers don’t, trying to remove inaccuracies is time consuming, frustrating, and result in consumers just giving up.

The FACT act stands for the Fair and Accurate Credit Transaction Act and FCRA stands for the Fair Credit Reporting Act, the FACT act was passed in 2003 and amended the FCRA act in order to provide more regulation that consumers can get one free copy of their credit report each year. With hundreds of provisions in each act it’s a stretch to require consumers to know these statutes inside and out. So how does a consumer become educated in this? With the internet you can find out just about anything but sometimes this comes with a price, some expensive some not.

You could always hire and attorney but this can be expensive as well. I know you’ve seen it, the many “credit repair companies” out there promising they can remove negative remarks some can help some not at all. Some of these companies are very expensive others are fairly cheap. The most important thing to remember, when dealing with credit, is to monitor your credit report and pay your bills on time.
I’m going to give you some resources that I’ve found online to be helpful in helping me “Master” my knowledge in the area of credit scores. The credit reporting companies provide you with information and also offer credit monitoring every month for a low fee and offer unlimited credit reports to help you take control of your credit.

The one thing that is frustrating is not KNOWING the algorithm at which they calculate your score. I’m going to give you a guide below as to what your score is comprised of and what information the credit scoring companies use in order to calculate your score. However this does not give you the concrete formula to which they use. Really to maintain great credit keep revolving balances low, don’t get into too much debt, and pay things off as fast as possible.

We are all bombarded everyday with “specials” and “once in a lifetime offers”, this is just targeted marketing designed to make you believe you can’t live without it or you are lesser of a person if you don’t buy it NOW. Please don’t fall for this. Now that is not to say some of the books and products that are marketed to you are not valuable, I’m merely saying don’t run to “every” special once in a lifetime offer that is presented to you, use your better judgment. The key is to spend less than you make and I know sometimes this can hard when we “justify” it in our minds by thinking we can handle the payments. But when you have this payment and that payment and then you have to borrower money to make this payment, you know where I’m going with this.

We are in the age of “automated underwriting systems” that help expedite credit decisions for lenders to improve time efficiency and lower costs. The problem with these systems is they are driven by score and your credit history, they cannot read your story. So for an example banks didn’t use these systems, they would evaluate your score based you and what you have to say. Keep in mind that underwriters looking at your application do not see you or know you therefore all they go by is what’s on paper. This is a huge disadvantage for the consumer but there are some advantages as well, including speed, efficiency, which improve customer service and the overall experience. KNOW your credit score and become educated in this area because its only going to get more complicated especially with the growing financial problems in the economy surrounding credit.

So lets get to some of information I have for you and resources you can use to help you with the “Mastery of Your Credit Score”.
BCS Alliance offers a credit kit that is 101 pages total and gives you some of the information I’m going to share with you now. I paid $14.99 for it; a small price to pay for information that could save you tens of thousands of dollars in the future.

Credit Scores

750 or higher – considered excellent credit
660-749 – considered good credit
620-659 – considered fair credit
350-619 – considered poor credit

How Credit Scores are Determined?
35% - Past payment history - Late payments, charge offs, bankruptcies, etc.

30% - Outstanding debt – amounts owed on all accounts, number of accounts with balances, debt-to-credit limit ratio, etc.

15% - Length of credit history – Time since accounts were opened, time since last activity, time since last delinquency.

10% - Recent credit applications – Types of new accounts, recent inquiries, and how many inquiries.

10% - Account mix – Types of various accounts (car loans, credit cards, mortgages, etc.)

Factors that are NOT used are demographic information, salary, type of job, etc.
To purchase this credit kit go to http://www.bcsalliance.com/

Remember if you keep you expenses low and keep more than you spend, you can gradually increase your credit score overtime and when a need arises you will have no problem obtaining credit and you will pay substantially less in interest and finance charges because of your good credit history.

Thanks again!

“The key to life is accepting challenges. Once someone stops doing this, he’s dead.”

Bette Davis

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It covers:
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Friday, October 17, 2008

Questions and Answers to $7,500 Tax Credit

$7,500 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit

1. How does a tax credit work?

Reduces income tax liability.
Credits are claimed on an individual's income tax return.
Maximum credit amount is $7500.

2. Who can use the new tax credit?

First-time homebuyers or individual who has not had an ownership interest in a principl residence in the previous three years.

3. What if my taxes due on my return are less than $7500?

The difference would be treated as an overpayment and the purchaser(s) would receive a tax
refund.

4. Is there an income restriction?

Based on tax filing status.
Single or head of household < $75,000.
Joint filing < $150,000.

5. Do individuals with incomes higher than the $75,000 or $150,000 limits lose all the benefit of the credit?

No, individuals making up to $95,000 and joint filers making up to $190,000 are eligible for a partial tax credit.

6. Is the amount of the credit tied to the price of the home?

Yes, credit is 10% of the cost of the home, maximum credit of $7,500.
Amount of credit is same for all taxpayers, married or single.

7. Are there property location restrictions?

Property must be located within the United States.

8. How do I apply for the credit?

Claim the credit on the appropriate IRS form 1040, or any special forms the IRS requires.
No pre-purchase authorization, application or similar approval process.

9. Can I use the credit amount as part of my downpayment?

Cannot claim the credit any earlier than the 2008 tax return that will be filed in 2009.

10. What is the repayment feature of the credit?

There is no precedent for repayment of a tax credit created for individuals at this time.

11. Terms for repayment?

Repaid in increments of 6.67% of the amount over 15 years.

12. When do I make a repayment?

Credits taken in 2008 will not be repaid until 2010.

13. Can the IRS put alien on my property for the amount of the credit repayment?

The statue does not grant the IRS that authority.

14. What if I sell my home before the 15-year repayment period?

Any amount of the unpaid credit will be reduced from any proceeds.
If there is a loss or the gain from the sale is less than the amount of the repayment then the liability is forgiven.
15. Any other exceptions to repayment?

If the person dies before credit is repaid the amount is disregarded
There are special adjustments to people who sell as part of a divorce and/or homes that are part of an involuntarily conversion.

16. If I received a refund of a portion of the tax credit because my total tax liability was less than the amount of my tax credit, do I have to repay the amount of the refund?

Yes

This should cover most of the questions. I do not see anything on the IRS website as of yet regarding this but you can call the IRS directly.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

FHA's Comeback

One of the things I want to talk about is FHA loans. This program up until earlier this year had maybe 2% penetration into the market place. Reason for this is the influx of money, from investors, into the mortgage market thus creating a plethora of alternative loan programs that were giving borrowers more options. These loans include no income verification loans, stated income an asset loans, piggyback loans to avoid pmi, and others.

The market became very creative and helped fuel a red hot real estate market that set record sales for 5 years in row. Many people don't realize that while the market was creative in providing alternative loan programs to borrowers, lax underwriting guidelines and fraudulent activity created the majority of the mess we now see today. A severe decline in home values played and is playing a major role itself. I'm not going to talk about a lot of bad news here I think we get enough of that already from the media. Lets face it bad news makes the front page. My intent is to provide information about a old but new program that many steered away from but now is one of the only high loan to value options left.

Lets talk about the benefits of an FHA loan.

1. No minimum credit score- FICO scores over the last 15 or so years have been used heavily by lenders to determine the creditworthiness of a borrower to repay a loan. Being in the people business for 7 plus years now and pulling credit and looking over credit reports I can tell you it doesn't give a very good indication. The system is designed to give you a snapshot in time of what borrowers score is and not a trend of creditworthiness. I say this because I've pulled credit on someone with a 700 credit score and 6 months later they have one late payment and their score dropped to 550. Now is that a good indication of the borrowers ability to pay back a loan? Let me answer that for you NO! With FHA you don't need a minimum credit score to qualify however common sense is needed here. A 400 credit score is highly unlikely to get approved. Now this year FHA has added risk-based premiums to their upfront mortgage insurance and that is credit score driven but overall there is not a minimum criteria for a score to qualify.

2. Low Down payment - With FHA, up until Oct 1, 2009, only has to contribute 3% down payment. After October 1 it goes up to 3.5%. The 3% can come from a relative as a gift or borrowers own funds. This is powerful because right now in the conventional world you need a minimum of 5%, if the property is located in a declining market as indicated by the mortgage insurance companies, you'll then need 10% down. Not to mention you need over a 680 credit score to get the mortgage insurance approved. You might be approved for loan but can't get the insurance. Which moves me into my next benefit.

3. Low mortgage insurance - FHA handles their own mortgage insurance so if you are approved your loan will have the mortgage insurance on it. FHA mortgage insurance also is at a lower expense then conventional and if you put 10% and take out a 15 yr fixed loan no monthly mortgage insurance is required.

4. No income restrictions - For the first time home- buyer group this is huge. Most first time home-buyer programs are designed to meet the needs of low to moderate income borrowers. Well if you make more than the income limit these programs are unavailable to you. FHA has no income restrictions to qualify.

5. Purchase or refinance new or existing 1-4 unit homes - This is a big plus. You can still get 97% on the purchase of a 1-4 unit primary residence. Conventional requires more down payment on multi-unit properties. On cash out refinances there are limitations to loan to value.

6. Financing for manufactured homes - With the credit tightening in the mortgage market some areas have an ample supply of manufactured homes. The same 97% guidelines apply on these but they must meet FHA guidelines and be on a permanent foundation.

7. You can use a non-occupying co-borrower - This is a forgotten rule but if you can have a non-occupying co-borrower, as long as they are a relative, sign on the loan and the borrower can still get the maximum financing of 97%. This is limited to 1 unit properties if the ltv is over 75%. Certain restrictions apply.

These are just a few of the many benefits to FHA financing. It provides a solution for many borrowers needs and helps them fulfill the American Dream of owning a home. I've been in the industry over 4 years now and I love providing solutions for my clients to purchase their first or next home. I get great joy out of what I do.

Stay tuned for more of my blogs and industry news. I've never been a big fan of bad news I like to spread good news but we are facing problems in the housing industry but i believe it when I say its a cycle and we'll survive this storm and come out of it with better times. Remember the market is what you make it. There are still many opportunities out there you just have to change your marketing strategy, do things a little differently, try something new to see what works and what doesn't.

Never become victim of all the bad news because you can sure find a lot of it. Now is the time to become more proficient at what you do and become a trusted adviser to your clients and business partners.

God Bless

"Whether you think you can or you think you can't, either way you're right"

Henry Ford

Copyright © 2008

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Are We Headed to The Point of No Return?

Well in one week we lost Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch, some of the biggest financial firms in the country and the world. And now there are talks that Morgan Stanley will merge or be bought out as well, and then there was one, Goldman Sachs. Out of the five biggest investment firms in the nation only one may be left standing. So what happened? Well its complicated but simple. These firms used leverage to maximize profits while the housing boom was in full steam. Let me explain. Some of these firms borrowed up to $30 dollars for every dollar in assets and while this is a very risky strategy, it can pay big dividends if executed properly. It’s called trading on the equity or using leverage.

See companies get a tax break on interest expense paid to its creditors. For instance you have net income before taxes but after expenses of say $2 million dollars and an interest expense of $150,000. That $150,000 is deducted from the $2 million and then you are taxed on the difference. This will increase the bottom line by using the interest expense as a deduction. Companies have quite a few ways to raise capital to finance its operations but the two main ways is to issue stock or issue debt. Issuing stock dilutes shareholder ownership but is a cheaper way to raise capital. But by issuing more shares net income now has to be spread over more shares outstanding lowering its EPS or earnings per share. By issuing debt and not issuing stock the company can reflect a higher EPS, more income spread over fewer shares of common stock outstanding.

This is all fine and dandy when revenues are growing but in sharp economic downturns this can cause the insolvency of a company very quickly. Take Countrywide for example, this company operated on leverage and when investor confidence eroded, they started to dump shares of Countrywide reducing its market cap by billions of dollars in a matter of a few short weeks. When creditors wouldn’t renew their notes, and after they tapped their lines of credit, the company was then bought out by Bank of America for $4 billion in stock.

This may seem very frightening and the media has made the word mortgage an ugly word claiming that the subprime mess caused it all. Well that’s only a small piece of the puzzle. In 2006, which was the peak of the subprime boom, 20% of all originations were considered subprime, roughly $800 billion dollars. While this is surely a lot of money it pales in comparison to the roughly $3 trillion dollars in mortgage originated in that year. Alt-A is becoming a recent problem, which represented 13% of originations in 2006, and was responsible for the majority of Fannie and Freddie losses in the past quarters. However in the midst of all this bad publicity there are still a great percentage of subprime borrowers making their payments. The real cause of this financial problem was the greed on the Wall Street, bad news causing naked short selling driving down the stock prices of financial stocks, and the lack of transparency in risky securities like CDO’s (collateralized debt obligations).

The value of these assets were grossly overestimated and was shown clearly by the liquidation by Merrill Lynch for 22 cents on the dollar which pushed them to a huge loss in their last quarter.

Regardless of what is going on right now it is still a great time to buy a home. Right now interest rates are still at historical lows and prices have retracted in some areas in the double digits. The cost of waiting right now in this volatile market is too great to let it pass you buy. Its funny how they talk about how hard it is to obtain a mortgage but the media never wants to talk about FHA insured mortgages. Its being estimated now that FHA originations, after only being a mere 2% in 2006, will skyrocket to 30-35% for 2008 and even more in 2009. FHA insured mortgages are a great way to get into a home with little down payment and competitive interest rates. Conventional loans right now are being hit heavy with credit score and ltv adjustments to pricing that drives the interest rate up for borrowers who have less than 740 credit scores. Don’t wait now is the time to take advantage of this market cycle.

Copyright © 2008