Can Mortgage Rates Stay This Low?

What is really going on behind the scenes? Well, in a shortened version, it started with a bubble caused by the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, during the Clinton Administration that burst in 2001 and we know what happened next - 9/11. Alan Greenspan dropped the short term federal funds rate to super low of 1%. While this doesn't have a direct effect, mortgage rates dropped to 50 year lows fueled by purchases of treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities by foreign countries and hungry investors for high returns.

Wall Streets ingenious plan of packaging subprime loans into mortgage backed securities and collateralized debt obligations to pension funds, institutional investors, etc, and finally came to a crash with the bust of Bear Stearns two hedge funds that went broke. These two hedge funds bought Alt A and subprime loans packaged into securities with loans that were 2 and 3 year Arms, 100% percent no income no asset loans, and all the other stated income, no income, low credit score loans, that nobody ever thought would go bad. Please, WAKE UP!

The same idea that Wall Street sold to investors about Internet company stock prices that would just go up and up and up, with no fundamentals backing them, or earnings being put back into the companies, would last forever, is exactly what happened to the Real Estate market. Now you see the mess that we are in. So what does the government about all the foreclosures on homes from people who couldn't afford them? We borrow and spend more money to get people to borrow more. How does that make sense?

The treasury has spent billions of money that we don't have, that we are just borrowing from the Fed at interest, to temporarily price fix to subsidize mortgage rates to...... ta da, get people to borrow more! If we borrowed and spent to much to get into this mess why would borrow and spending more get us out. Multi billion dollar bailout after bailout will cause inflation to rise, interest rates will go back up, and we'll be still in debt paying interest on that debt at higher and higher interest rates crippling us from the debt load.

So back to the question, can mortgage rates stay this low? They can if demand for mortgage backed securities begins to rise again. Now that the treasury has wained from buying MBS, the FED has stepped in and committed to $500 Billion, of which its spent a good portion of it.

I don't like negative thinking or being a doomsdayer, but this low rate environment can't sustain itself. Back in the hottest moment of subprime loans, 65% of those loans were repackaged and given AAA credit ratings. That is the best credit rating you can get. How is that possible to rate subprime mortgage backed securities with the "best credit" ratings available. Sounds kinda of silly don't it?

So where are we going from here? Could we see another Carter Administration with interest rates in the teens? Probably not but I can tell you one thing. If you are in the market, and can afford to buy a home, now is a wonderful time to purchase with lower home prices and interest rates temporarily low by government subsidies. If you are looking to refinance out of an ARM or payoff high interest debt into a longer term fixed rate mortgage, now is the time.

Guidelines have tightened so be prepared for some surprises along the way. Get your information together and speak with a mortgage professional about your financial situation today.

God Bless