Mortgage Rates

I came across a funny article and just had to laugh at it.  It's title: "Mortgage Rates Rise Despite Fed Intent".  What made me laugh was the comment that rates "jumped" up in the latest week 10 basis points from a national average from 3.52% to 3.62%.

I mean this is hysterical; we're seeing sub 4% interest rates and it's crazy busy in this business right now and a fraction of a percent raise is considered a "jump".  This kind of talk is just nonsense.  The problem is that rates have been so low for so long that people are just immune to it like they are to advertising messages.  Ever notice how many messages are thrown into our face everyday through several media modalities and outlets? You have some that catch you eye every now and then but for the most part, we ignore them.

Same philosophy here; people are immune to the low rate environment but a 10 basis point increase is no where near a jump.  To give you a perspective on how much of an increase that is; 1 basis point is 1/100th of a percent.  So we're talking 10/100ths of a percent increase in rate.  On $165,000 loan you're talking $9 a month.

That's not exactly breaking the bank here folks.  The article you can find here.. I don't care what they say, and of course I could be wrong, but artificial low rates are here to stay.  They can't lower them.  I think the FED has done so much for so long; they're all in now baby...We'll be riding this wave for a while.

If you're in the market to buy or refinance it a good time but keep in mind that lenders are slammed right now and loans are taking longer to close and documentation requirements are still heavy so make sure you see both of my posts on Today's Mortgage Environment and Mortgage Application Tips...

These will help get your mindset right, explain a little bit about what's been transpiring on the back end and how to be full prepared at application to help improve the processing, underwriting, and closing of your loan.

D...out..

Today's Mortgage Environment

This will be a quick post but wanted to just give you a little insight on today's mortgage enviornment. It's NOT the same as it was 3 and 4 years ago.  Loans are harder to get done; they are taking longer; and quite frankly we have a shortage of experienced people in the industry right now which complicates things.

We have people who have left the business for other jobs during the downturn and really don't want to come back for something that could be temporary.  Or you had people leave who won't come back no matter what.. 

The problem we find ourselves in now is the heavy regulatory compliance environment coupled with low rates and massive refinance and purchase activity... the lenders just can't keep up.

One crazy statistic I came across was Wells Fargo actually employs I think 60% of the underwriters in the industry in the US.  Just think about that for a moment..

Wells holds about 30% plus market share and 60% of the underwriters roughly..that doesn't leave a whole lot for the rest of the market.

The point I'm trying to make is these days we have last minute changes; last minute closings; and frustrated borrowers and realtors because deals are taking too long and the amount of documentation needed.  I understand completely and borrowers and realtors are not the only ones frustrated with that process.

What people fail to realize is on the back end, lenders are being heavily scrutinized on paperwork and are experiencing high levels of buybacks.  I've even heard some deficiencies (paperwork, etc, missing from the file) can carry fines as much as $15,000.

That's insane!  But as you can see, this is why you see some of the documentation requests being made; it's not to be a pain in the neck, it's to make sure no deficiencies are found that carry huge fines.

There are even some lenders raising rates to price themselves out of the market because they can't keep up with volume.

Now you'll have some people screaming they are not having issues or can just slam your loan through no problems; make every closing with no last minute clitches and I would argue they are full of it.  With this market the way it is right now problems are bound to happen. 

That doesn't mean I'm being negative - it just means I set the right expectation with people upfront as we all have the same goals - close on time, make the customer happy, and get referrals.  Our business grows from referrals and we want the experience to be the best for the borrowers and referral partners.

I think the most important thing to remember, regardless of the issues we face, is communication..
 Communication, communication, communication -  I think this would eliminate a lot of frustration if people would just communicate property, quickly, and be solution oriented.

Remaining calm and cool is crucial.  Anybody can be calm and cool under good times; but under pressure and stress it's important to remain professional and solution oriented.

See my post here regarding mortgage application tips for consumers to make sure you are prepared at application to improve the processing and underwriting of your loan..

The more prepared you are at application the smoother the process will go.

Just rest assured your loan officer is very motivated to get your loan done quickly, smoothly, so you can move in or get your refinance done and have a great experience.

If you find that you're in a situation where multiple requests for documentation or extra time is needed just remember what I've said in this post regarding the back end and regulators because the ultimate goal is not to upset the customer or realtor; it's to make it a great experience so you come back, send friends and family, and deepen your relationship with the lender (purchasing other products and services)

To your success,

D..out..

Fed Unleashes More Liquidity

Just as I mentioned a couple of days ago in my post Mortgage Rates Updated, I said the Fed will keep the faucet flowing baby and with the news hitting today just a few hours ago, this has been confirmed.  The Fed will continue to purchase mortgage bonds to keep rates low and even try to get them lower to fuel demand.

This isn't going to stop ladies and gentlemen.  It's too late to take the foot off the gas now.  The excuse is the Fed will continue, "as expected" to stimulate the economy due to job numbers and economic indicators.  If you haven't seen the article check it out - http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bernanke-bazooka-open-ended-qe3-very-aggressive-says-173314037.html.

As you can see from the article, now, as different in other announcements, this QE is "open ended" meaning no deadline to stop it.  As I mentioned before - call it QE infinite baby!

We're going to continue seeing this as now it's too late to stop it because they won't let the market liquidate all the bad debt and mal investment as this would uncover just how vulnerable alot of corporations really are and how unhealthy the financial system really is. 

If they would just let the system liquidate, it would be really bad for awhile, but would quickly bounce back stronger than before; however this strategy of pumping more and more cash into the system, is just going to lead to an even bigger collapse later on.

Ole Ben Bernanke doesn't care.  All he's concerned with is keeping his special interests and banker buddies happy.  Who benefits from all this? Yea, we have lower mortgage rates (which is good for lower payments but our dollar continues to decline) that are causing a frenzy right now with refinances and new purchases but lenders are not properly staffed which is causing a tremendous amount of backlog and issues getting loans to closing on time for purchases and in a reasonable amount of time for refinances.  Some loans are taking 90 days sometimes or longer to close because so many people are refinancing right now under the HARP 2.0 and new FHA streamline refi programs. 

According to some reports the Fed is saying they are going to keep rates low until mid 2015! Wow! First it was only a year then 2012, then 2013, now mid 2015.  Take a look at the chart below regarding the purchasing power of the dollar since the Fed took over in 1913; the dollar has lost over 96% of the purchasing power it used to have.  This isn't going to stop and countries all across the world are following suit of the Fed pumping massive liquidity into their economies to spur demand.  The only people really benefiting is the corporations and mega banks of the world as they profit hugely from this. 

The stock market sky rocketed today on the news continuting to fuel asset prices.  When will it ever stop? Never baby - hold on to your hats and enjoy the ride becasue you ain't seen nothing yet!

The big boys are making all the money and average saver is losing their purchasing power day by day by day while the Fed helps their bank buddies, big boy corporations, and special interests profit hugely by these moves as they are contrived and planned before the announcement to the public is ever made. 

We'll definitely get to see some rhetoric from Mitt and strutting peacock Barack I'm sure regarding this which continues to fuel the real life soap opera we call the 2012 Presidential Campaign.  The false sense of choice we have between the two candidates is not real choice - it's controlled opposition.  But that is another story for another day. 

Mortgage Rates Updated

I submitted a post in 2009 regarding mortgage rates and I'm updating it again now.  You'll hear all kinds of different perspectives from financial advisors; mortgage gurus; industry groups, etc, but in my opinion rates may have some ebbs and flows as major institutions involved in the MBS market modify their portfolios, but but we've gone past the point of no return.

The Fed is stuck in QE infinite.  In other words.... rates are on lockdown and they can't let up on the gas now baby.  How can they?

Can you see what would happen if they do let rates rise? Ummm - market chaos.  Some are going to read this and say I'm crazy; I'm a conspiracy theorist; I say bull and open your eyes to what is going on.

$16 Trillion in debt; foreign governments defaulting on sovereign debt obligations; war all over; they can't stop the pumping the cash now baby it's all in,  all or nothing.  Trillions have been spent and trillions more will continue to be spent. 

The housing market is a huge part of our economy and they keep stimulating it through controlling the interest rates and driving demand. Stimulus galore!

You want a stimulus package, in my opinion, I would use renovation financing as this is a viable way to keep goods and services flowing through the economy.  See my previous post - The New Real Estate Trend. I'm going to do a series of posts on this subject but in short; you can finance the cost of the purchase of the home and the cost of upgrades and/or needed or desired improvements to the property all in one loan with one payment.

You'll hire a contractor to do the work after closing and you can include (depending on the program) anything from light to moderate repairs to major renovations such as additions and foundational work; and even luxury improvements like swimming pools. 

Through this loan you're purchasing materials, improving the property you're buying (not to mention turning the home into one you love and not just one you like) and putting people to work, ie contractor and their subs.  This is a stimulus package with a private sector approach that really isn't rate sensitive. 

Think about it; most improvement loans you get are tied to high interest credit cards or you already own the home and you secure a second mortgage fixed rate loan or what is called a HELOC (home equity line of credit). The difference is these options look at current equity while the renovation loan uses post-renovation value (future equity). More on these differences in my series of posts to come.

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Does that mean you should buy now or wait? I can't answer that, only you can assess your financial situation and make that decision.  They call owning a home the American Dream but the American Dream is what your make it.  Not everyone is ready, equipped, or can afford to buy right now and that's okay.  When the time is right for you you'll know it.

For right now I think the low rate environment isn't going away.  Aside for some market adjustments I don't think interest rates are going anywhere - I don't see how they can.  The Fed knows this and you can tell when every time ole Benny Bernanke gets in front of Congress and testifies, this guy will not say the pump will stop.  He always makes some comment regarding more tools at their disposal and are ready to provide more stimulus if the need is warranted. 

Yeah buddy! That means it isn't stopping any time soon. 

Until next time, God Bless

Can Mortgage Rates Stay This Low?

What is really going on behind the scenes? Well, in a shortened version, it started with a bubble caused by the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, during the Clinton Administration that burst in 2001 and we know what happened next - 9/11. Alan Greenspan dropped the short term federal funds rate to super low of 1%. While this doesn't have a direct effect, mortgage rates dropped to 50 year lows fueled by purchases of treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities by foreign countries and hungry investors for high returns.

Wall Streets ingenious plan of packaging subprime loans into mortgage backed securities and collateralized debt obligations to pension funds, institutional investors, etc, and finally came to a crash with the bust of Bear Stearns two hedge funds that went broke. These two hedge funds bought Alt A and subprime loans packaged into securities with loans that were 2 and 3 year Arms, 100% percent no income no asset loans, and all the other stated income, no income, low credit score loans, that nobody ever thought would go bad. Please, WAKE UP!

The same idea that Wall Street sold to investors about Internet company stock prices that would just go up and up and up, with no fundamentals backing them, or earnings being put back into the companies, would last forever, is exactly what happened to the Real Estate market. Now you see the mess that we are in. So what does the government about all the foreclosures on homes from people who couldn't afford them? We borrow and spend more money to get people to borrow more. How does that make sense?

The treasury has spent billions of money that we don't have, that we are just borrowing from the Fed at interest, to temporarily price fix to subsidize mortgage rates to...... ta da, get people to borrow more! If we borrowed and spent to much to get into this mess why would borrow and spending more get us out. Multi billion dollar bailout after bailout will cause inflation to rise, interest rates will go back up, and we'll be still in debt paying interest on that debt at higher and higher interest rates crippling us from the debt load.

So back to the question, can mortgage rates stay this low? They can if demand for mortgage backed securities begins to rise again. Now that the treasury has wained from buying MBS, the FED has stepped in and committed to $500 Billion, of which its spent a good portion of it.

I don't like negative thinking or being a doomsdayer, but this low rate environment can't sustain itself. Back in the hottest moment of subprime loans, 65% of those loans were repackaged and given AAA credit ratings. That is the best credit rating you can get. How is that possible to rate subprime mortgage backed securities with the "best credit" ratings available. Sounds kinda of silly don't it?

So where are we going from here? Could we see another Carter Administration with interest rates in the teens? Probably not but I can tell you one thing. If you are in the market, and can afford to buy a home, now is a wonderful time to purchase with lower home prices and interest rates temporarily low by government subsidies. If you are looking to refinance out of an ARM or payoff high interest debt into a longer term fixed rate mortgage, now is the time.

Guidelines have tightened so be prepared for some surprises along the way. Get your information together and speak with a mortgage professional about your financial situation today.

God Bless

Super Low Mortgage Rates - What Happened?

I'm sure all of you have been seeing the news of how bleek the economy is. To me its blah, blah, blah, blah. But now the Treasury is stepping up to the plate in an effort to reduce mortgage rates to the point that people jump into the market and start buying or refinancing. This is going to pull the first time homebuyers back in and start getting some inventory off the market.

The Treasury announced a purchase plan of roughly 600 Billion dollars that they will use to buy mortgage-backed securities and government issued treasuries over the next couple of months. So what does this mean? How long will this last? I'm not sure but for those of you who don't know why this makes rates go down I'll explain briefly.

Mortgage rates are tied to mortgage-backed securities. These are bonds that are issued by Fannie and Freddie which contain securitized mortgage loans. Pools of loans are put together then packaged into securities and sold as bonds. Now there are three areas of risk with these, credit risk (default risk), IR (interest rate exposure), and early redemption (pre-payment). Now as rates go down, pre-payment is more likely because people can refinance into a lower rate. When pricing these bonds for sale we must take into consideration bond convexity. Bond convexity is simply the measure of sensitivity to the duration of a bond to changes in interest rates. So what does this mean? Well it means that to compensate the risk of payoff to investors these bonds are priced at a spread (fixed margin) over government treasuries, usually the 10yr bond.

So in order for the purchase of mortgage-backed securities to work effectively the Treasury will also buy government bonds to drive down their yields resulting in lower spreads, thus resulting in lower mortgage rates. They are hitting this thing from both sides

By purchasing both government and mortgage-backed bonds, the Treasury is essentially subsidizing mortgage rates. As they buy up these bonds, prices go higher resulting in lower yeilds. Lower yeilds mean lower mortgage rates. I can tell you its worked. I've taken eight loan applications over the last two days and I expect it to get better after Thanksgiving.

Keep in mind, when first time homebuyers are not buying homes this leaves the market flooded with inventory. The sellers of this inventory can't buy another home until they sell theirs and so on and so forth. So see the first time homebuyer is essential and will cause a domino effect once they've returned to the market.

Now not all first time homebuyers have vanished but most of them are on the sidelines not sure what to do. I can't stress enough that this is a cycle that we will come out of eventually. The government is doing what they can to stimulate the market and we should see housing begin to stabilize when inventory begins to come back down to healthy levels.

The trends, in some areas, are starting to show positive signs of improvement. The one thing the media leaves out is that there ARE STILL loan options out there and banks are lending. The media makes its sound as if financing has all but vanished. This is simply not true. If you are in the market NOW is the time to jump. Don't wait for it pass by. There has only been a handful of days in four decades where rates have been lower. Rates have dropped about a full point in the last two days. This doesn't mean they will stay down so make a move if you're on the fence.

Realtors start picking up the phones.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Copyright © 2008 by Dustin Swigart

What Is Your Rates and Fees?

I hear this all the time. Do you know what I hearing when I hear this? I hear the client asking what am I getting for my money? What service are you going to provide? I need more information.

I can't tell you how many lenders there in this market that have really low rates and fees. But I caution you when dealing with these companies; you will get what you pay for and you do sacrifice something to get the absolute lowest rate and fees. Many of these employees that work for them are paid by the hour and do not know a thing about the guidelines or different solutions that are available to you. They enter your information into a system that tells them whats best. There is no listening involved only data collecting.

These companies have a habit of selling not only your loan, but the servicing rights to your loan as well. What does that mean? The means your loan will get transferred to another lender, and possibly another lender after that.

Take Walmart for example. Walmart has the lowest prices but service is horrible proving that all they care about it sheer volume. You are not a customer to them, only a number. If they sell enough at a low price, they can make a profit.

H&R block is another example. What do you get with H&R block? You get the lowest tax preparation fees but do you get professional service? My point is when asking a lender for rate and fees, find out about who you are dealing with. Is your lender only a mortgage company? Are they a bank? Do you trust who you are doing business with?

What happened to service? To building a long-term relationship with your lender that not only stops with your mortgage; but also your checking, savings, investments, and insurance needs. The subprime mess is an example of not advising clients in the proper way on what solutions are best for them. Its our duty as originators to discuss the full details of the loan, including discussion on debt to income ratios, the responsibilities of a home owner - especially first time homebuyers - benefits and disadvantages, and resources to educate our clients.

Don't just settle for lowest rate and fees, please consider the long-term relationship with your originator and lender. Find out if they sell the servicing to their loans. They will have a servicing disclosure that will disclosure how many loans they've sold the servicing to in the last 3 years.

When shopping for a mortgage, shop for a professional. Why would you originate your loan with someone who doesn't even know how the market works? You are making the biggest purchase you'll ever make so make sure you dealing with a professional.

Ask questions, be informed of your choices, and make sure you trust your originator. Most lenders will have similar programs and similar rates, so think about the relationship. Shopping for a mortgage is not just about rates and fees.

Copyright © 2008

Mortgage Rates

So what in the world is going on with mortgage rates? We have so much volatility its hard to judge the direction. Keep in mind the market is highly emotional right now. From day to day you don't know what is going to happen.

I try to coach my buyers the best I can but sometimes the window of opportunity is only there for a couple of days and then gone again for a few weeks.

Many people do not realize that mortgage rates are determined by the secondary market for mortgage-backed securities. Let me explain what I mean and it will make more sense.

Lenders make loans to borrowers for mortgages, car loans, etc. Lenders can get their money from a few places. Deposits are the cheapest. This is why banks REALLY stress and focus on what is called core deposit growth.

Banks can also use short term funding like commercial paper or short term notes usually ranging from 90-120 days. They can also borrower from other banks. If the lender is publicly traded they can raise capital through the issuance of more shares or preferred shares. Preferred shares are a hybrid of stock and debt and are paid dividends by either a percentage or dollar amount per share. Example 8% preferred would pay 8% interest on the par value of shares held. If the pare value is $100, they would receive $8 dollars a share. If the stock is a $3 preferred, this would mean that the investor would get $3 per share regardless of the par value (example if the par value was $60). Issuing common shares would dilute common shareholder equity and is usually not seen favorably by investors with big positions within the company. This is a whole other topic.

So once the lender makes the loan they can either hold the loan on the books, a portfolio loan, sell the note to an investor such as Freddie or Fannie -- these are government sponsored entities with the sole purpose of providing liquidity in the mortgage market -- or they they can sell the note and then sell the servicing rights altogether. Selling the note and servicing provides fee income for the originator of the loan and then frees up the capital to go lend more moving all the risk to someone else.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will then pool these loans together and package them into securities and sell them as bonds to investors worldwide. This is also to provide more liquidity to them so they can continue to buy more and more loans. The cycle just repeats itself.

Freddie and Fannie do have loan limits that are set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who on July 30 2008 was created by the Housing Recovery Act, to oversee Freddie, Freddie, and the Federal Home Loan Banks, to make sure the secondary market is functioning properly.

These MBS or Mortgage-Backed Securities are sold in the form of bonds. If you are not sure with how bond pricing works it can be a little confusing. When bond prices move up (which means investors are buying), the yield at which those bonds pay goes DOWN. Yes that's right price and yield move inversely from each other. When bond prices move down (which means investors are selling), the yield moves up. This can get really complicated because a bond has a stated interest rate or coupon, doesn't mean the investor will pay that. Market prices change all the time and if an investor wants a higher yield, that means the price has to come down.

So what does all this mean? Well it means that if the yields go up on the bonds, mortgage rates will follow the upward trend. This is because mortgages have a risk of prepayment either through selling the home or refinancing into a new loan. When this happens investors do not get the cash flow from the bond they anticipated so to compensate for that risk these bonds are traded at a spread of government bonds. Spread simply means a numeric figure, expressed in terms of basis points, over the index (the government bonds). Basis points are a fraction of percentages expressed as a unit of 100. Example 1 basis point is 1/100 of a percent. One hundred basis points would be equivalent to 1%.

Right now investors are skeptical of the condition of the economy and even though the government is pumping billions of dollars into the system it boils down to investors wanting higher returns for loaning their money. Bottom line don't play the guessing game. If you are in the market to purchase a home now is the best time to do so.

Why you ask? Even though we have price volatility, mortgage rates are still at historical lows and on top of that you have home prices that have fallen some 30% in some areas making more homes affordable. Don't waste time we will start to see home prices going back up soon so don't get left holding the bag trying to wait it out to the last minute and time the market.

As a warning please make sure you work the numbers of purchasing a home prior to making any offer. Speak with a professional, sit down and work out your budget. Make sure you can afford to make the payments and don't get caught in the trap many Americans did by splitting hairs just to buy a home. Homeownership is the American dream.

Thanks

Dustin

Copyright © 2008 by Dustin Swigart