Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Super Low Mortgage Rates - What Happened?

I'm sure all of you have been seeing the news of how bleek the economy is. To me its blah, blah, blah, blah. But now the Treasury is stepping up to the plate in an effort to reduce mortgage rates to the point that people jump into the market and start buying or refinancing. This is going to pull the first time homebuyers back in and start getting some inventory off the market.

The Treasury announced a purchase plan of roughly 600 Billion dollars that they will use to buy mortgage-backed securities and government issued treasuries over the next couple of months. So what does this mean? How long will this last? I'm not sure but for those of you who don't know why this makes rates go down I'll explain briefly.

Mortgage rates are tied to mortgage-backed securities. These are bonds that are issued by Fannie and Freddie which contain securitized mortgage loans. Pools of loans are put together then packaged into securities and sold as bonds. Now there are three areas of risk with these, credit risk (default risk), IR (interest rate exposure), and early redemption (pre-payment). Now as rates go down, pre-payment is more likely because people can refinance into a lower rate. When pricing these bonds for sale we must take into consideration bond convexity. Bond convexity is simply the measure of sensitivity to the duration of a bond to changes in interest rates. So what does this mean? Well it means that to compensate the risk of payoff to investors these bonds are priced at a spread (fixed margin) over government treasuries, usually the 10yr bond.

So in order for the purchase of mortgage-backed securities to work effectively the Treasury will also buy government bonds to drive down their yields resulting in lower spreads, thus resulting in lower mortgage rates. They are hitting this thing from both sides

By purchasing both government and mortgage-backed bonds, the Treasury is essentially subsidizing mortgage rates. As they buy up these bonds, prices go higher resulting in lower yeilds. Lower yeilds mean lower mortgage rates. I can tell you its worked. I've taken eight loan applications over the last two days and I expect it to get better after Thanksgiving.

Keep in mind, when first time homebuyers are not buying homes this leaves the market flooded with inventory. The sellers of this inventory can't buy another home until they sell theirs and so on and so forth. So see the first time homebuyer is essential and will cause a domino effect once they've returned to the market.

Now not all first time homebuyers have vanished but most of them are on the sidelines not sure what to do. I can't stress enough that this is a cycle that we will come out of eventually. The government is doing what they can to stimulate the market and we should see housing begin to stabilize when inventory begins to come back down to healthy levels.

The trends, in some areas, are starting to show positive signs of improvement. The one thing the media leaves out is that there ARE STILL loan options out there and banks are lending. The media makes its sound as if financing has all but vanished. This is simply not true. If you are in the market NOW is the time to jump. Don't wait for it pass by. There has only been a handful of days in four decades where rates have been lower. Rates have dropped about a full point in the last two days. This doesn't mean they will stay down so make a move if you're on the fence.

Realtors start picking up the phones.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Copyright © 2008 by Dustin Swigart

Friday, November 21, 2008

FHA vs Conventional

Not many people know the difference between conventional and FHA loans, and up until the recent market turmoil, FHA was a bad word in the housing market. What's the reason? FHA was a little archaic, with no modernized changes in many years, and the complex appraisal process made this program undesirable in a market flooded with no down payment programs.

Well I've got great news for you. I'm going to break down some differences between them. Now I won't be able to mention every single difference here, but I will give you some of the major differences in regards to rates, down payment, mortgage insurance, and underwriting differences.

Conventional loans are offered in many ways ranging from adjustable rates coming in 1,3,5,7,and 10 year hybrid arms, interest only loans, and 10,15,30, and 40 year fixed rate loans. FHA loans are offered in 3,5 yr arms and 15 and 30 yr fixed rate loans.

Some lenders offer different terms but these are the most common offered. Not ever lender will be the same in their product offerings.

So lets get into some of the differences now.

RATES:

Conventional loans in terms of pricing, or rates, have very high risk adjustments for lower credit scores and higher loan to values. Loan to values are calculated on purchases, as the loan amount divided by the purchase price. For example lets use a purchase price of $125,000 and a loan amount of $100,000. The loan to value would be calculated as 100,000/125,000 = 80%.

In this scenario the ltv (or loan to value) is 80% meaning the borrower is putting 20% down. The higher the ltv the higher the pricing. Lets say a borrower has a 650 credit score and they have 10% down, their rate would be considerably higher than someone with a 720 credit score and the same down payment. Conventional loans will also have pricing adjustments for multi-family properties, FHA does not.

MORTGAGE INSURANCE:

Conventional mortgage insurance is issued through private providers such as MGIC, Radian, RMIC, and PMI. These companies have their own guidelines when issuing mortgage insurance on conventional loans. In recent months all of them have gone to minimum credit score requirements and specific underwriting guidelines to mitigate risk. I've seen loans make it all the way to closing and fall apart because mortgage insurance could not be obtained. Mortgage insurance for multi-family properties will vary on conventional loans but will not be impacted on FHA.

Another note on this is unlike conventional loans that use private companies to obtain mortgage insurance, FHA is fully self funded by the upfront and monthly mortgage insurance premiums they collect. When comparing FHA you will see that the upfront costs associated with the loan are a little more expensive. This is because FHA will charge an UFMIP (up front mortgage insurance premium) that is equal to 1.75% (on purchases, streamline refinances are lower) of the base loan amount - I'll explain this in more detail under the down payment section. The monthly mortgage insurance premium will depend on the ltv. It'll will either range from .005% to .0055% of the loan amount. So for a $100,000 dollar loan amount the yearly mortgage insurance would be $500-$550 a year respectively. This is considerably lower than conventional which would range from .0075% - .0099% of the loan amount. Do the math that almost twice as much.

FHA 15 year loans have lower mortgage insurance, and if you put 10% down on a 15 yr loan, there is NO monthly mortgage insurance. This is not the case with Conventional.

Since FHA is fully self-funded, if you are approved for the loan, you're automatically approved for the mortgage insurance. This is not the case with the private mortgage insurance companies.

DOWN PAYMENT:

While as I write this we'll probably be in the process of receiving more changes, this is the most updated information available in regards to down payment. Conventional loans, non jumbo, which are loans above the annual Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae conforming limits, require 5% down payment. If the property is located in a declining market - which would be determined by the appraiser, Freddie or Fannie, or the MI company, you would need an additional 5% down payment. Below is the list of the conforming loan limits for 2009.

General max limits (for single family residences) are $417,000 and high cost areas $625,000.
For Alaska, Guam, Hawaii, and U.S. Virgin Islands, general is $625,000 and high cost is $930,000. For 2, 3, and 4 units these limits are higher. You can visit Fannie Mae's website at www.efanniemae.com for a full chart of loan limits.

For FHA, as of 2008, will be 3% down payment. Starting January 2009 minimum down will be 3.5%. Congress deliberated awhile on what to change the down payment requirements to on FHA loans. Ideas were thrown around for 1.5% or even $0 down. The fear was that FHA would be the new "sub-prime", so they changed it to 3.5%. The idea here is for people to have some skin in the game. If they've invested their hard earned money into the home, they are less likely to walk away from it without exhausting every avenue. FHA loan limits will vary by county and state and will adjust for high cost areas just as Fannie and Freddie do. You can find a detailed list at http://www.hud.gov/pub/chums/file_layouts.html

Now above I spoke about the UFMIP (up front mortgage insurance premium). How this would be calculated is to take the purchase price, in this case we'll use $100,000. You reduce this by the amount of down payment, for this example lets just say you are putting 3% down. This would be a base loan amount of $97,000. You then multiply this by the 1.75%, which equals $1697. This would be added to the base loan amount to get your total loan amount, which would equal $98,697. This is also the number used to calculate your monthly mortgage insurance. This was the additional up front cost I was talking about earlier. Even though you have this on FHA loans, the overall costs after a full analysis could be substantially lower versus using Conventional financing.

UNDERWRITING DIFFERENCES:

I could spend awhile on this section so I'll try to keep it short and sweet. Most lenders use Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae's automated underwriting systems, LP and DU - loan prospector and desktop underwriter - to evaluate loan candidates and shorten the time taken to make an underwriting decision. These systems have built in risk models that evaluate the data submitted and either give an approval or a denial based on that information.

FHA doesn't technically have a minimum credit score requirement, but this doesn't mean that you can get any credit score approved. When talking about having a no minimum credit score requirement, this is concentrating on those who do not have enough credit to pull a credit score. When this is the case, FHA underwriting guidelines will allow you to get what is called non-traditional credit references establishing a credit history with rent payments, utility payments, cell phone, etc. Not having a credit score will not eliminate the borrower from obtaining FHA insured financing. With the private mortgage insurance companies now implementing minimum credit scores for approval, FHA insured financing is the better option for the borrower.

While this isn't nearly all the differences when underwriting these loans, just know that FHA insured financing has more flexible guidelines then conventional loans, so this would be the better option for borrowers who've had credit issues in the past. This would provide them with low cost financing, making the purchase of the home more affordable, which is the goal of the program.

Please keep in mind this is only some of the major differences between the programs and you should still consult a professional when evaluating your options on buying home. This does not mean you shouldn't sit down at the dinner table with a piece of paper and write out ALL of your expenses, to determine if purchasing a home is right for you.

When being qualified for a loan, lenders only use debt reporting on the credit report for qualification purposes so please, do your due diligence and write out how much you have coming in and how much you have going out, taking into consideration things that may come up, before you invest savings, 401k, or other sources of funds into purchasing a new home.

Please be an informed buyer.

Copyright © 2008

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Wasn't The Bailout Money for Bad Mortgages?

Well we were all sold the fact the 700 billion dollar bailout was for troubled mortgage related assets. This topic should concern you since you and I will have to fit the bill for this as taxpayers. Now the money is being used to take minority positions in banks and other companies such as AIG.

Now you have the auto industry, city governments, state governments, and everybody else coming with their hands out looking for cash. The big three have been said to be burning through one billion dollars a month a piece. Now they want $25 billion dollars to get them through these troubling times.

Since when do we socialize losses and privatize profits? The TARP or Troubled Asset Relief Program was intended to buy toxic mortgage loans from struggling banks in attempt to help ease the credit crunch. Now the money is being used to take stakes in banks urging them to lend more. Instead banks are not lending and in some instances they are using this money to fund acquisitions of other banks.

Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson is now switching gears from his original plan and backed his decision by saying in an interview, "Our assessment at this time is that this is not the most effective way to use TARP funds," he told the nation Wednesday.

So what now? Wasn't the whole problem stemming from the mortgage industry with all these exotic mortgages and mortgage-backed securities? Frustrating as it is we must deal with it now. As you should be concerned about the actions of the government with the use of our taxpayer money I urge you to stay focused on your business.

Just to be clear mortgages have not dried up. Loans are still available to consumers. The percentage of FHA loans being originated is growing rapidly and will continue. These mortgage loans are never talked about by the media. So even though banks are struggling with bad loans on the books, this too shall pass, and the market will stabilize. If you are in the market to purchase a home now is still a great time to buy one.

Look at using FHA financing for purchasing your new home. If you have less than 20% down you will need mortgage insurance, you will come out better with FHA mortgage insurance anyway as this, in some cases, is half the cost monthly. FHA only requires a minimum of 3% down right now, then Jan 1 you will 3.5% down payment.

While conventional loans still have hefty delivery fees for credit score adjustments and loan to value adjustements, FHA rates will be more competitive.

You can find out more by visiting my website at www.53.com/mlo/dustin-swigart. You can also email me at dustin.swigart@53.com

Copyright © 2008 by Dustin Swigart

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

What Is Your Rates and Fees?

I hear this all the time. Do you know what I hearing when I hear this? I hear the client asking what am I getting for my money? What service are you going to provide? I need more information.

I can't tell you how many lenders there in this market that have really low rates and fees. But I caution you when dealing with these companies; you will get what you pay for and you do sacrifice something to get the absolute lowest rate and fees. Many of these employees that work for them are paid by the hour and do not know a thing about the guidelines or different solutions that are available to you. They enter your information into a system that tells them whats best. There is no listening involved only data collecting.

These companies have a habit of selling not only your loan, but the servicing rights to your loan as well. What does that mean? The means your loan will get transferred to another lender, and possibly another lender after that.

Take Walmart for example. Walmart has the lowest prices but service is horrible proving that all they care about it sheer volume. You are not a customer to them, only a number. If they sell enough at a low price, they can make a profit.

H&R block is another example. What do you get with H&R block? You get the lowest tax preparation fees but do you get professional service? My point is when asking a lender for rate and fees, find out about who you are dealing with. Is your lender only a mortgage company? Are they a bank? Do you trust who you are doing business with?

What happened to service? To building a long-term relationship with your lender that not only stops with your mortgage; but also your checking, savings, investments, and insurance needs. The subprime mess is an example of not advising clients in the proper way on what solutions are best for them. Its our duty as originators to discuss the full details of the loan, including discussion on debt to income ratios, the responsibilities of a home owner - especially first time homebuyers - benefits and disadvantages, and resources to educate our clients.

Don't just settle for lowest rate and fees, please consider the long-term relationship with your originator and lender. Find out if they sell the servicing to their loans. They will have a servicing disclosure that will disclosure how many loans they've sold the servicing to in the last 3 years.

When shopping for a mortgage, shop for a professional. Why would you originate your loan with someone who doesn't even know how the market works? You are making the biggest purchase you'll ever make so make sure you dealing with a professional.

Ask questions, be informed of your choices, and make sure you trust your originator. Most lenders will have similar programs and similar rates, so think about the relationship. Shopping for a mortgage is not just about rates and fees.

Copyright © 2008

Thursday, November 6, 2008

To My Realtors

We all know right now is tough. The sentiment out there in the market is that its horrible. While I agree its tough, I'll challenge the notion it's horrible. Now you must be thinking Dustin, what are you saying. Well let me explain. We all can remember when we got into the business your manager, or someone telling you to stick to the basics.

Even though we are in the people business, you sell homes, I sell the financing to purchase those homes, we have basics to which we must adhere to in order to become successful. I don't like the use of sales techniques to describe skills needed to become successful. To me it boils down to you having character, integrity, honesty, and a true passion to help others.

That's what I mean, the basic fundamental principles in any worthwhile and enjoying career. To right of this blog you'll see a section that says Realtor Educational Resources. I also have some links you can click that will take you to some neat sites with some great information on them. I surf the net looking for ways to improve my business and the business of my partners. I want to share with you some resources I found online that could help with your business right now. I want you to succeed and therefore I'll share anything I find that can be helpful to you and increase your business.

The good news is, the strong will survive in these times. The people who are committed will survive. The people who do not let opportunity pass them by, will see this as a time to hone your skills, fine tune your systems and make changes as needed, and develop a niche so you'll be seen as the expert in that area.

Don't let the media penetrate your mind and fill it with doubt, and doom and gloom. Do you actually think we'll stay like this forever? Absolutely not, and I will stress that if you don't prepare yourself for the upswing, you'll be left behind holding the bag as the market takes off.

Take this time to really get better and implement some systems that will help you succeed. For me reading books is a tremendous tool for me because I love to learn. Also in the section I mentioned above, there is a Real Estate Success Ebook you can get that will give you some more ideas for generating leads, marketing, and even listing presentations. One area I believe you cannot slack on is education. You must be the professional everybody trusts and has confidence in to be the go to person when they need real estate services.

So get the book and tell me some good news on how it helped you achieve a goal or goals. Preferably I want to hear that in plural form. Then after you reach those goals, write some more down and complete those.

To your success, I wish you happy selling. ;o)

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Mortgage Rates

So what in the world is going on with mortgage rates? We have so much volatility its hard to judge the direction. Keep in mind the market is highly emotional right now. From day to day you don't know what is going to happen.

I try to coach my buyers the best I can but sometimes the window of opportunity is only there for a couple of days and then gone again for a few weeks.

Many people do not realize that mortgage rates are determined by the secondary market for mortgage-backed securities. Let me explain what I mean and it will make more sense.

Lenders make loans to borrowers for mortgages, car loans, etc. Lenders can get their money from a few places. Deposits are the cheapest. This is why banks REALLY stress and focus on what is called core deposit growth.

Banks can also use short term funding like commercial paper or short term notes usually ranging from 90-120 days. They can also borrower from other banks. If the lender is publicly traded they can raise capital through the issuance of more shares or preferred shares. Preferred shares are a hybrid of stock and debt and are paid dividends by either a percentage or dollar amount per share. Example 8% preferred would pay 8% interest on the par value of shares held. If the pare value is $100, they would receive $8 dollars a share. If the stock is a $3 preferred, this would mean that the investor would get $3 per share regardless of the par value (example if the par value was $60). Issuing common shares would dilute common shareholder equity and is usually not seen favorably by investors with big positions within the company. This is a whole other topic.

So once the lender makes the loan they can either hold the loan on the books, a portfolio loan, sell the note to an investor such as Freddie or Fannie -- these are government sponsored entities with the sole purpose of providing liquidity in the mortgage market -- or they they can sell the note and then sell the servicing rights altogether. Selling the note and servicing provides fee income for the originator of the loan and then frees up the capital to go lend more moving all the risk to someone else.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will then pool these loans together and package them into securities and sell them as bonds to investors worldwide. This is also to provide more liquidity to them so they can continue to buy more and more loans. The cycle just repeats itself.

Freddie and Fannie do have loan limits that are set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who on July 30 2008 was created by the Housing Recovery Act, to oversee Freddie, Freddie, and the Federal Home Loan Banks, to make sure the secondary market is functioning properly.

These MBS or Mortgage-Backed Securities are sold in the form of bonds. If you are not sure with how bond pricing works it can be a little confusing. When bond prices move up (which means investors are buying), the yield at which those bonds pay goes DOWN. Yes that's right price and yield move inversely from each other. When bond prices move down (which means investors are selling), the yield moves up. This can get really complicated because a bond has a stated interest rate or coupon, doesn't mean the investor will pay that. Market prices change all the time and if an investor wants a higher yield, that means the price has to come down.

So what does all this mean? Well it means that if the yields go up on the bonds, mortgage rates will follow the upward trend. This is because mortgages have a risk of prepayment either through selling the home or refinancing into a new loan. When this happens investors do not get the cash flow from the bond they anticipated so to compensate for that risk these bonds are traded at a spread of government bonds. Spread simply means a numeric figure, expressed in terms of basis points, over the index (the government bonds). Basis points are a fraction of percentages expressed as a unit of 100. Example 1 basis point is 1/100 of a percent. One hundred basis points would be equivalent to 1%.

Right now investors are skeptical of the condition of the economy and even though the government is pumping billions of dollars into the system it boils down to investors wanting higher returns for loaning their money. Bottom line don't play the guessing game. If you are in the market to purchase a home now is the best time to do so.

Why you ask? Even though we have price volatility, mortgage rates are still at historical lows and on top of that you have home prices that have fallen some 30% in some areas making more homes affordable. Don't waste time we will start to see home prices going back up soon so don't get left holding the bag trying to wait it out to the last minute and time the market.

As a warning please make sure you work the numbers of purchasing a home prior to making any offer. Speak with a professional, sit down and work out your budget. Make sure you can afford to make the payments and don't get caught in the trap many Americans did by splitting hairs just to buy a home. Homeownership is the American dream.

Thanks

Dustin

Copyright © 2008 by Dustin Swigart